A Storm Coming to our Plugin Market?

I talk to a lot of developers of both hardware & software, and whilst the former seems fairly stable for now* (we just love to buy physical blinkenlight-encrusted bleep-bloop toys, after all!) the health of the software market is not so clear. *Eurorack is another story of course, and has it's own strengths & challenges.

Dataintelo, a global market research firm, states:

According to our latest research, the global audio plugins market size reached USD 1.62 billion in 2024, reflecting robust expansion driven by digital transformation in the music and entertainment industries. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2025 to 2033, reaching an estimated USD 3.62 billion by 2033. This growth is primarily attributed to the increasing adoption of digital audio workstations (DAWs), the proliferation of home studio setups, and ongoing technological innovations in sound processing and effects.

9.1% ain't bad right? Another 2 billion in the bank! Still, that doesn't seem to fit with the reality on the ground, so to speak. Here, I'll attempt to lay out some of the challenges that plugin developers face. This isn't meant to be doom and gloom without a purpose - I want to see this industry find solutions, survive and even thrive.

AI-Assisted Tooling

People can abstain from all sorts of things; alcohol, animal products, nicotine, social media. I'm currently attempting to abstain from vibe-coded music software (e.g. plugins, alternative firmwares, etc) and give as much of my writing focus and time to (a quickly vanishing) number of lovingly hand-coded DSP instruments. It's not going well, and, it turns out, my views are far from common; many musicians who despise wholly generative music have no qualms over these shiny new AI-coded toys.

The point may come where such individuals think; "why should I buy your plugin when Claude can build me nearly the same thing?". It's true that our community has always had a strain of the edge lord about it; "everything should be free!" - a fine point of view until you want talented people to be motivated to deliver their best. And yes yes; thankless open-source devs often create amazing products out of passion & thin air - but somewhere along the line, food must be put on the table.

If Claude/Codex tinkerers come to embody the market's new low-end range (a tier previously occupied by free SynthEdit plugins), then it's mid-tier companies - those without a solid monthly subscription offer or aggressive bundle pricing - who are likely to struggle most. If AI can bang out something that's "good enough"...then, good enough, I guess?

I've spoken with leaders of teams of talented coders - keen to keep their DSP trickery human; but even these dedicated folk have one eye on AI, in case it becomes a book-balancing necessity. It is worth noting that AI tools can allow small teams to achieve goals, concentrate on the fun, creative stuff and ship products way faster than using "the old ways"...so it could be argued that we shouldn't judge them too harshly for utilising all "tools" (shudder, lol) at their disposal. I honestly don't know - at the moment, coding automation doesn't sit right with me - but if all developers adopt the approach then I'm going to have to swallow my words aren't I? Either that, or sell all my gear and become a pond-dwelling ukulele player!

Oversaturation

For every attention-grabbing product like Madrona Lab's Sumu (a beast of resynthesis and spacial sound) - there's many which struggle to stand out from the pack. This is not through a lack of quality or effort, but simply because the marketplace is so crowded. Marketing has become essential - aggressive pricing, maintaining relationships with fans and demo creators, making the development process a visible spectacle and a hundred other tactics.

Free Wonders

Built-in DAW tools and plugins - bread and butter compressors, delays, EQ's, limiters, reverbs and synths, often offer adequate or even exceptional performance; satiating a producer's hunger for better tools. What's more - free and "freemium" software is having a moment right now.

Vital's basic (free) plan nets you an incredible wavetable synth (and assembly tool) with bucket loads of modulation and filtering, there's a range of Motorola DSP emulations that recreate hard-hitting wavetable, VA and effects gear of the past straight in you DAW. I should add that producers of these emulations do not distribute copyrighted ROM files, and maintain that these tools are for owners of the original hardware. Just like video game emulation then; where you're only supposed to download the Nintendo or Sega ROMs you actually own - you do own them, right?

When free stuff gets this good - on par with current premium products or sometimes, literal emulations of legacy premium products - then the very notion of high-value premium products becomes devalued. Folks will, again, suggest that "everything should be free!" - perhaps if  this mantra was used against bigger systemic issues, instead of mid-tier software developers, it might ring less hollow.

Cheap Hardware Dopamine

Finally; the rise of ultra cheap hardware might have an effect on software sales. 

Many plugin titles sit in that "treat myself" £19.99 - £49.99 zone (pretty bargainous compared to early 2000's plugin prices!), but this price bracket is now being encroached on by super-inexpensive hardware from East Asia.

• M-VAVE FM-1 - a £40-50 6 operator FM synth
• M5 Cardputer ADV - a £30 hackable device with mic & audio out. DAW/Tracker/Synth/FM apps available!
• Livtra Nanocore - A £37 mono audio interface and effects suite with a rechargable battery.

I really like these machines, and am especially looking forward to hacking the Cardputer ADV to do my evil, FM bidding...so I hope that it's obvious this article is not about disparaging those who create hardware & software for this community, whatever those products may be. I'm merely pointing out a few trends I've noticed in the conversations I've had, and am putting it out there so that this industry can future-proof itself. If you had £49.99 burning a hole in your pocket and a case of GAS, what would you choose?

What are your thoughts? Any ideas on positive steps we might take? I'd love to hear your ideas. I quite like the idea of hardware that also has an identical plugin version, for example!

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